Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FA 0xfaa0…2dd8 crypto 124 markets active 2d ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$302 (-7%) realized −$140 · open −$162
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%55W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$3
14 days+$62
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$188
other 41% −$155
sports 13% $0
tech 0% +$2
world 0% −$20
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -25.3% -32.4% 46% 38% -10.9%
≤30d 15 -10.2% -18.8% 53% 47% +9.6%
≤90d 119 -15.5% -23.5% 46% 45% -16.7%
all 119 -15.5% -23.5% 46% 45% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 45% -16.7%
10% -30.9% 39% -24.7%
15% -37.5% 35% -32.0%
20% -43.7% 31% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$1,527
Realized−$140
Unrealized−$162
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses55 / 64
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)119 / 124
History coverage46d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $501 $481 −$21 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $503 $473 −$30 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $484 $374 −$110 (-23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $101 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $101 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$22 +22%
Will Trump praise Emmanuel Macron by June 30? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$18 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 09 $52 +$48 +93%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $94 −$93 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $101 +$45 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 15 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 06 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 06 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 06 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 06 $9 +$8 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 06 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 06 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 06 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $31 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 06 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 06 $3 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Trump praise Emmanuel Macron by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $397 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $104 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $104 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $515 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $499 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 6d
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 6d
Will Trump praise Emmanuel Macron by June 30? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 8d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 59¢ $94 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 30d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 63¢ $51 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves SELL Spurs 96¢ $146 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $38 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,527.30 · official $1,527.30 (match) · 210 history records