Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfaa2…e80a sports 116 markets active 3h ago coverage 60d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,874 (+2%) realized −$6,102 · open +$20,976
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%63W / 51L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$5,307per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$4,927est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$47,976now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 60d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$23,136
other 15% +$27,516
crypto 4% −$24,500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -26.4% -33.4% 47% 47% -27.2%
≤30d 104 -11.0% -19.5% 51% 49% -10.0%
≤90d 114 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 53% -8.7%
all 114 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 53% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 53% -8.7%
10% -23.0% 46% -17.4%
15% ← realistic here -30.5% 37% -25.4%
20% -37.3% 25% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$5,850) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,593 vs −$3,163 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$47,976
Realized−$6,102
Unrealized+$20,976
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses63 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$4,927
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage60d
Avg bet$5,307
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $20,600 $39,980 +$19,380 (+94%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 80¢ 100¢ $6,400 $7,996 +$1,596 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,800 −$3,800 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24,875 −$24,500 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,650 −$5,650 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16,477 +$15,990 +97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,378 +$600 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3,402 +$724 +21%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15,414 −$15,358 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $8,779 −$8,680 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $1,468 −$1,440 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $9,444 +$4,045 +43%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4,497 +$2,086 +46%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $40,349 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $4,320 +$1,680 +39%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2,250 −$2,250 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $1,679 +$543 +32%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $990 −$990 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $18,495 +$5,195 +28%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2,094 −$2,068 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $8,714 +$6,586 +76%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $12,638 −$12,536 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $965 +$35 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $3,264 +$3,744 +115%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $5,280 −$5,280 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $13,453 +$2,847 +21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $4,249 +$2,939 +69%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $240 −$240 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $4,295 −$4,295 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $4,607 +$2,070 +45%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $725 −$725 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2,680 +$1,320 +49%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $14,191 +$3,778 +27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $280 −$280 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $2,530 −$2,530 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $2,520 +$1,480 +59%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $3,720 +$2,280 +61%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $33,082 +$4,638 +14%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $900 −$900 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $21,859 +$14,141 +65%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $3,237 +$2,223 +69%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $411 −$411 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $2,296 −$2,240 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $5,850 −$5,850 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1,135 −$1,120 -99%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $1,463 −$1,463 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $207 +$93 +45%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 01 $514 −$57 -11%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $17,408 +$2,601 +15%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Quali May 30 $1,523 −$1,347 -88%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qual May 29 $969 −$957 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $2,400 3h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $4,000 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5,100 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5,100 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $3,800 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10,400 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $24,875 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $2,800 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $2,850 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 50¢ $16,477 30h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $1,378 31h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $11,994 33h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $15 33h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $7 33h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $3,399 33h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 62¢ $8,779 34h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $1,468 34h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $3,402 34h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $55 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $4 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2,423 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $7 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $194 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $66 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $676 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $46 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $5,691 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $7 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $23 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $1,117 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47,976.00 · official $47,976.00 (match) · 1709 history records