Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FA 0xfaa4…2ecb crypto 703 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (193 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,150 (+78%) realized +$9,152 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%367W / 605L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day193.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,349
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (193 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 605 -47.4% -52.4% 23% 22% -23.1%
≤30d 972 -23.0% -30.3% 38% 35% -10.0%
≤90d 972 -23.0% -30.3% 38% 35% -10.0%
all 972 -23.0% -30.3% 38% 35% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover193.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.3% 35% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -37.0% 32% -18.6%
15% -43.1% 24% -26.5%
20% -48.7% 19% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -67% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$9,152
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses367 / 605
Open positions1
Markets (closed)972 / 703
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day193.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 972 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 99¢ 96¢ $20 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Up 11¢ 4¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +89%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +108%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +43%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +104%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +41%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +70%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +64%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +163%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +245%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +104%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +64%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +144%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 0m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 4m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 4m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 4m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 4m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 7m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $0 14m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 37m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $18 59m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $7 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $9 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $0 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $0 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.95 · official $65.48 · 3500 history records