Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:21:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfaa5…fa07 sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$317 (-5%) realized −$315 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%35W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$174
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$1,033
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$376
other 10% +$100
crypto 4% −$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +17.7% +6.5% 50% 50% -12.5%
≤30d 33 +4.7% -5.3% 45% 45% -51.9%
≤90d 65 +13.7% +2.9% 54% 51% -15.5%
all 65 +13.7% +2.9% 54% 51% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 51% -15.5%
10% -7.0% 49% -23.6%
15% -15.9% 46% -31.0%
20% -24.2% 37% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$87 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$315
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses35 / 30
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions3
Markets (closed)65 / 68
History coverage42d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$26 +51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +72%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$44 -86%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $20 +$11 +52%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $20 −$11 -55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$33 +65%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $20 +$97 +474%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $51 −$20 -39%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $44 +$22 +49%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +42%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$4 -19%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 +$15 +144%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$31 +298%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
England to win the second half? Jun 17 $10 +$11 +113%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$13 +129%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $97 −$97 -100%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs May 31 $92 −$91 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $89 +$50 +56%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $87 +$61 +70%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $872 −$785 -90%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 23 $102 −$49 -48%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 May 23 $101 −$93 -92%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) May 22 $203 −$121 -60%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $102 −$84 -82%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $203 −$92 -45%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 21 $51 +$23 +46%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 21 $101 +$29 +29%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 21 $202 −$25 -12%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 21 $202 −$100 -49%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $510 −$451 -88%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 May 20 $101 +$84 +83%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $102 +$93 +92%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) May 20 $101 +$49 +49%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $203 −$8 -4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $204 +$362 +178%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $101 +$95 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5 May 19 $102 −$74 -73%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 18 $51 −$4 -8%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $76 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $87 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 29h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 31h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 31h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 32h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 37h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 38h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $27 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $66 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $44 39h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 41h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 9¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.49 · official $198.49 (match) · 142 history records