Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfaa9…ed7d sports 42 markets active 5d ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$149 (+2%) realized +$149 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%24W / 18L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$197
14 days−$197
30 days−$936
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$245
politics 2% −$151
other 2% −$15
crypto 1% +$22
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -28.2% -35.0% 57% 57% -17.7%
≤30d 24 -46.9% -51.9% 33% 33% -26.0%
≤90d 28 -30.9% -37.5% 43% 43% -23.2%
all 42 -13.1% -21.3% 57% 50% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 50% -8.5%
10% -28.9% 36% -17.2%
15% -35.7% 26% -25.2%
20% -42.0% 19% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$132 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses24 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage197d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $525 −$518 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $813 +$90 +11%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $377 +$76 +20%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $248 +$123 +50%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $203 +$44 +22%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $10 −$6 -63%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$3 +53%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $1,121 +$888 +79%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 02 $999 −$887 -89%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $299 −$299 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner Jun 02 $98 −$98 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 02 $180 −$180 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs Jun 02 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - ESL Challeng Jun 02 $81 −$81 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner May 13 $213 +$50 +24%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner May 13 $20 +$5 +23%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner May 13 $127 +$25 +20%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner May 02 $13 +$25 +194%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Mar 13 $346 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Mar 13 $142 +$37 +26%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pla Mar 13 $58 +$42 +73%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Mar 05 $851 +$133 +16%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs NIP (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 05 $638 +$213 +34%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner Mar 05 $81 +$119 +147%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Mar 05 $230 +$97 +42%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Mar 05 $169 +$116 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Mar 05 $35 −$35 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 05 $151 −$151 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 04 $389 +$339 +87%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 04 $40 +$1 +3%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31? Jan 29 $100 +$20 +20%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 30 $35 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 33¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $525 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 98¢ $526 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 84¢ $453 6d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $453 6d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 82¢ $377 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 60¢ $377 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $360 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 12¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $371 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $248 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 84¢ $248 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 68¢ $203 6d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner SELL NRG 9¢ $4 14d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner BUY NRG 22¢ $10 14d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL NRG 28¢ $10 14d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 28¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $40 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 14d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL GamerLegion 100¢ $2,009 15d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Gaimin Gladiators 6¢ $2 15d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY GamerLegion 55¢ $1,121 16d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Heroic 73¢ $299 16d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner SELL GamerLegion 100¢ $207 35d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner BUY GamerLegion 68¢ $141 35d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner SELL Liquid 31¢ $56 35d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner BUY Liquid 38¢ $20 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records