Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:52:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfaab…e6f2 other 197 markets active 0h ago coverage 227d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 227d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$84,017 (-10%) realized −$85,100 · open +$1,083
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate41%76W / 108L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,320per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$289est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$14,656now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days+$494
14 days+$494
30 days−$3,470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$66,005
sports 11% −$5,372
crypto 9% −$2,799
economics 5% −$3,414
tech 5% −$17,772
politics 3% +$5,492
world 2% +$772
finance 0% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -20.5% -28.1% 45% 36% +1.2%
≤30d 17 -19.1% -26.8% 35% 29% -30.4%
≤90d 28 -22.9% -30.2% 29% 21% -30.8%
all 184 +2.7% -7.0% 41% 26% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 26% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 17% -27.4%
15% -24.1% 11% -34.4%
20% -31.5% 10% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$3,729) neutral
Persistence
early +19% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,047 vs −$1,573 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$14,656
Realized−$85,100
Unrealized+$1,083
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses76 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$289
Open positions16
Markets (closed)184 / 197
History coverage227d ⚠
Avg bet$4,320
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 86¢ 100¢ $5,702 $6,634 +$932 (+16%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 89¢ $1,412 $1,408 −$5 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $900 $1,049 +$149 (+17%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 52¢ $500 $1,048 +$548 (+110%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 82¢ $811 $945 +$134 (+16%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $834 $908 +$74 (+9%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $631 $633 +$2 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $650 $527 −$123 (-19%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $400 $420 +$20 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $456 $381 −$75 (-16%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $251 $242 −$9 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $311 $203 −$108 (-35%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 4¢ $442 $100 −$343 (-77%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $123 $5 −$118 (-96%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-01? Jun 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-05? Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $919 +$132 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $211 −$207 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $506 +$176 +35%
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $574 −$59 -10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $712 +$192 +27%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $600 +$14 +2%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $351 +$420 +120%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $152 −$20 -13%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $200 −$22 -11%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $163 −$9 -6%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $309 −$11 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $569 +$19 +3%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $3,674 −$3,666 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $6,542 −$275 -4%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $3,433 −$3,414 -100%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 05 $1,537 −$1,515 -98%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 02 $1,507 −$51 -3%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? Apr 30 $174 −$22 -12%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? Apr 11 $1,280 −$30 -2%
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 11 $1,429 −$85 -6%
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 10 $1,201 −$74 -6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 10 $7,678 +$195 +2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? Apr 10 $480 −$40 -8%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $823 −$349 -42%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $1,921 +$366 +19%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 27 $1,499 +$448 +30%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $9,933 −$6,672 -67%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $30 −$6 -22%
Will another company be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $144 −$27 -19%
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $35 −$35 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Feb 26 $81 −$24 -30%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 25 $2,192 +$110 +5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Feb 22 $1,000 −$8 -1%
Paradex FDV above $10B one day after launch? Jan 29 $31 +$2 +5%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 29 $1,799 −$439 -24%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 29 $2,531 −$67 -3%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $19 +$6 +32%
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 18 $2,349 −$22 -1%
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 17 $1,706 −$240 -14%
Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Jan 17 $4,760 −$64 -1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 12 $38,949 −$2,951 -8%
Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 12 $663 −$6 -1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jan 12 $10,023 +$3,932 +39%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jan 12 $177 −$28 -16%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 mil Jan 12 $110 −$63 -57%
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 09 $135 −$135 -100%
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 09 $250 −$250 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $447 14m
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $4 38m
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 57m
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $58 1h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $13 1h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $31 2h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $428 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 76¢ $504 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 2h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $10 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $131 3h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $131 3h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $989 3h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 84¢ $146 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $211 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $209 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $241 27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $410 27h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 84¢ $50 30h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 84¢ $20 32h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 84¢ $15 33h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 84¢ $10 34h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 84¢ $67 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,655.95 · official $14,655.84 (match) · 3500 history records