Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfaaf…a50e world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$9
other 16% $0
sports 5% −$4
politics 2% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 43% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -1.5% -10.9% 22% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 18 -1.5% -10.9% 22% 0% -10.6%
all 31 -1.0% -10.4% 39% 3% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 3% -10.8%
10% -19.0% 0% -19.4%
15% -26.8% 0% -27.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage474d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 75¢ 74¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $31 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $7 $0 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $9 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $40 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $63 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $44 −$8 -19%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $87 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $122 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $38 +$2 +5%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $39 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $83 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 04 $7 $0 +6%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +11%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Apr 21 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? Apr 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 42°F or below on March 13? Mar 12 $10 $0 -2%
IUPUI vs. Wright State Mar 04 $14 −$4 -26%
Will Trump say 'inflation' 10+ times during the 2025 State of the Unio Mar 03 $14 $0 -2%
Syracuse vs. SMU Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $26 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $5 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 9h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 14h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $21 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 35h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $18 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $16 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 90¢ $34 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $6 45h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $31 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $34 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $34 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $31 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $32 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $30 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $32 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 69¢ $36 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 85¢ $44 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.87 · official $31.29 (match) · 104 history records