Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:12:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FA 0xfab8…e2a0 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$142 (+23%) realized +$138 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$147
sports 31% +$3
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +43.6% +29.9% 57% 57% +18.6%
≤30d 14 +43.6% +29.9% 57% 57% +18.6%
≤90d 14 +43.6% +29.9% 57% 57% +18.6%
all 14 +43.6% +29.9% 57% 57% +18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.9% 57% +18.6%
10% +17.5% 57% +7.3%
15% +6.1% 50% -3.1%
20% -4.3% 43% -12.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +57% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$27 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized+$138
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $128 $165 +$38 (+30%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $34 $1 −$34 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $79 +$45 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 +$105 +262%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $18 +$59 +325%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $69 +$40 +57%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $39 +$10 +24%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$12 +237%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $35 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $128 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $50 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $79 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $40 12h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $60 12h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $18 22h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $22 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $69 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $39 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.88 · official $165.88 (match) · 24 history records