Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:07:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FA 0xfabc…2134 sports 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60,445 (+19%) realized +$60,519 · open −$74
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate52%49W / 46L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$3,401per market
Trades / day49.1pace
Fees−$6,802est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,059now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$10,575
other 8% +$2,602
politics 0% −$200
crypto 0% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +5.6% -4.5% 29% 21% -3.0%
≤30d 36 -6.9% -15.7% 47% 11% -6.1%
≤90d 95 +4.8% -5.2% 52% 31% -5.7%
all 95 +4.8% -5.2% 52% 31% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 31% -5.7%
10% -14.3% 24% -14.7%
15% ← realistic here -22.6% 18% -22.9%
20% -30.1% 16% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$3,845) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$374 vs −$116 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.44 per $1 lost it wins $3.44
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$1,059
Realized+$60,519
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses49 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$6,802
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$3,401
Trades / day49.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas Seattle Orcas 67¢ 63¢ $1,133 $1,059 −$74 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings Jun 25 $5,320 +$226 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $19 +$104 +546%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $43 −$42 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -97%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $58 −$30 -52%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 20 $3,285 +$521 +16%
Will England win? Jun 20 $3,802 −$328 -9%
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go Jun 20 $14 −$13 -97%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 20 $404 −$137 -34%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico Jun 20 $39 −$38 -97%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $8,032 +$252 +3%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $77 −$77 -100%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $1,570 +$12 +1%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 16 $3,307 +$81 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 14 $8,680 +$169 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $7,077 −$282 -4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $4,381 +$414 +9%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex Jun 12 $310 −$105 -34%
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Lancashire Jun 12 $391 −$68 -17%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Derbyshire Jun 12 $9,414 +$192 +2%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 12 $6,244 +$55 +1%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 12 $6,174 +$248 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 04 $22,540 +$2,306 +10%
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Northamptonshire Jun 03 $13,064 +$294 +2%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 03 $6,056 +$452 +8%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex - Who wins the toss? Jun 03 $108 +$95 +88%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 31 $6,663 +$133 +2%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Derbyshire May 31 $12,694 +$447 +4%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Nottinghamshire May 31 $6,783 −$60 -1%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Warwickshire May 31 $3,845 −$175 -4%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Northamptonshire May 24 $4,686 −$290 -6%
T20 Blast: Glamorgan vs Gloucestershire May 23 $11,801 +$2,469 +21%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Lancashire May 22 $1,252 +$61 +5%
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 20 $7,352 +$126 +2%
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand - Wh May 20 $17 +$13 +78%
Exact Score: PSV 0 - 1 FC Twente? May 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Exact Score: PSV 1 - 0 FC Twente? May 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Exact Score: PSV 0 - 0 FC Twente? May 20 $58 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Bangladesh win? May 20 $63 −$63 -100%
Exact Score: Newcastle United Jets FC 0 - 0 Sydney FC? May 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Will PSV win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $1,787 −$279 -16%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $4 $0 -0%
PSV vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 4.5 May 17 $679 −$71 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 36¢ $20 5m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas BUY Washington Freedom 34¢ $19 18m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 65¢ $41 18m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 68¢ $113 21m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 68¢ $68 21m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 68¢ $41 21m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 68¢ $382 21m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 68¢ $53 21m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 68¢ $20 21m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 67¢ $419 21m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Seattle Orcas 59¢ $628 23m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Seattle Orcas 59¢ $18 23m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Seattle Orcas 59¢ $99 23m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 56¢ $233 24m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 56¢ $6 24m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 56¢ $57 24m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 48¢ $49 26m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 50¢ $28 27m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 50¢ $8 27m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 50¢ $8 27m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 50¢ $3 27m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 50¢ $33 27m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 50¢ $4 27m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 50¢ $55 28m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 50¢ $5 28m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 50¢ $28 28m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 50¢ $54 29m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 50¢ $50 29m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 50¢ $50 29m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 50¢ $8 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,058.96 · official $1,058.96 (match) · 3500 history records