Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:36:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfac2…f35f crypto 804 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 127d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$4,568 (-6%) realized −$4,516 · open −$52
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate60%475W / 319L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$241est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$474now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$52
14 days+$345
30 days+$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$867
sports 16% −$581
other 14% −$481
world 9% −$81
politics 5% −$11
finance 5% −$280
weather 1% −$248
culture 1% −$153
tech 0% +$37
economics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +5.6% -4.5% 75% 12% -8.3%
≤30d 77 -4.3% -13.4% 74% 26% -7.4%
≤90d 439 -7.9% -16.7% 57% 20% -12.5%
all 794 -6.8% -15.7% 60% 21% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 21% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 11% -20.8%
15% -31.1% 7% -28.5%
20% -37.9% 4% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$20 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$474
Realized−$4,516
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses475 / 319
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$241
Open positions11
Markets (closed)794 / 804
History coverage127d ⚠
Avg bet$103
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 794 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs REKONIX 71¢ 69¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 89¢ 90¢ $89 $90 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $99 $59 −$41 (-41%)
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Andre Lima 84¢ 84¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 90¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+15%)
Will Seoul have less than 100mm of precipitation in June? No 96¢ 86¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-11%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 73¢ 64¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will ground beef hit $7 per pound in 2026? Yes 92¢ 75¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will ground beef hit $9 per pound in 2026? No 91¢ 69¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 94¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $383 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? Jun 19 $30 +$2 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $30 +$1 +3%
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 18 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$14 +46%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 17 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $111 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1,545 −$35 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $33 −$1 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $218 −$2 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $629 −$7 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $309 +$65 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $107 +$25 +23%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $101 +$15 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $102 +$27 +26%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $272 +$228 +84%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 07 $207 +$42 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 05 $41 +$18 +44%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4PM ET Jun 02 $132 −$69 -53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $25 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $56 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $169 −$6 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 01 $61 +$8 +13%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? Jun 01 $92 +$5 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $118 +$6 +5%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $682 −$194 -28%
Dota 2: Team G vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Euro May 29 $65 −$15 -23%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St May 29 $190 +$19 +10%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 29 $15 +$5 +35%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Euro May 28 $390 −$49 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 28 $75 +$4 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 28 $83 +$6 +7%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $99 −$9 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 71¢ $101 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff SELL K27 82¢ $290 10h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff SELL K27 65¢ $93 10h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 74¢ $31 10h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 74¢ $40 10h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 74¢ $35 10h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 74¢ $6 10h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 74¢ $28 10h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 74¢ $45 10h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 79¢ $198 10h
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 89¢ $89 2d
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 84¢ $40 2d
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 2d
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? BUY No 94¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $31 2d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL No 87¢ $108 2d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 3d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $101 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $371 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $140 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $124 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $124 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $66 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $474.27 · official $474.29 (match) · 3500 history records