Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:33:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfac3…1bec other 67 markets active 20h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$116 (-5%) realized −$119 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate58%36W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$185
14 days−$162
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$208
crypto 21% −$70
other 21% −$67
sports 16% −$184
finance 8% −$50
politics 0% −$5
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +3.1% -6.7% 45% 45% -56.2%
≤30d 22 +15.0% +4.0% 64% 55% -16.6%
≤90d 62 -4.0% -13.1% 58% 47% -16.1%
all 62 -4.0% -13.1% 58% 47% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 47% -16.1%
10% -21.4% 35% -24.1%
15% -29.0% 23% -31.4%
20% -36.0% 19% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$27 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses36 / 26
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)62 / 67
History coverage64d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $19 $20 +$2 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $41 +$32 +79%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 +$14 +62%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$16 +253%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +216%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 +$23 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $120 +$10 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $101 +$19 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $148 +$18 +12%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 26 $15 +$12 +76%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 25 $51 +$19 +38%
Kash Patel out by May 31? May 25 $35 +$24 +67%
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 21 $5 $0 +8%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons May 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 20 $32 +$40 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 20 $134 −$134 -100%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Pr May 20 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 18 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 15 $24 +$8 +32%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? May 12 $72 +$23 +32%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $13 +$9 +65%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $20 −$18 -90%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $9 +$4 +43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 03 $59 +$12 +20%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 02 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 02 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 02 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 02 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 02 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 02 $26 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 02 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 30 $84 −$3 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 19h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 33h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $73 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $41 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $22 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $22 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 59¢ $30 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $61 15d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 16d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 16d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? SELL No 99¢ $130 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 91¢ $120 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $120 18d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $93 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $101 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? SELL No 95¢ $27 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $70 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? SELL No 97¢ $70 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $78 25d
Kash Patel out by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $59 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.15 · official $62.15 (match) · 179 history records