Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:07:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfac3…5728 crypto 705 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 145d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,959 (-14%) realized −$16,929 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%430W / 512L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,444now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14,955
7 days−$15,954
14 days−$16,952
30 days−$16,962
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$6,852
other 13% −$5,229
sports 3% −$564
finance 3% +$109
tech 1% −$431
world 1% −$58
culture 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 342 -65.7% -69.0% 18% 15% -47.9%
≤30d 465 -48.0% -52.9% 31% 26% -38.0%
≤90d 515 -52.7% -57.2% 28% 24% -49.0%
all 942 -22.6% -30.0% 46% 40% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.0% 40% -24.0%
10% ← realistic here -36.7% 37% -31.3%
15% -42.8% 32% -37.9%
20% -48.4% 28% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$93 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$1,444
Realized−$16,929
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses430 / 512
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions4
Markets (closed)942 / 705
History coverage145d ⚠
Avg bet$174
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 942 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 76¢ $616 $604 −$12 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $610 $595 −$15 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $138 $136 −$2 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 411 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 8AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 11PM ET Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 7AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 2PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 6AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 6PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 11PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 8AM ET Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 1PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 11AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 4PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $129 −$129 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 1AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 31 and 32 million Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 5AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 12AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 5AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 8, 11AM ET Jun 19 $29 −$43 -152%
XRP Up or Down - December 8, 4PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 27, 11PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 9PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 12PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 9AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 26, 9PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 7AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 5AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 8PM ET Jun 19 $79 −$79 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 3AM ET Jun 19 $69 −$69 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 10AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 3PM ET Jun 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 6AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 1PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 3PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 2, 5PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 1AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 1PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 6AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 26, 12PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 8PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 1PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 9AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 10PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 30, 1AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 7AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 3PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 1AM ET Jun 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 12AM ET Jun 19 $149 −$149 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 5AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 27, 11PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $620 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $617 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $111 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $142 29h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 29h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $203 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $6 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $505 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $83 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $41 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 46h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 1¢ $61 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $351 47h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $371 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $489 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $706 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,294 2d
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,998 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $582 2d
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $76 2d
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 2d
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 2d
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 2d
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $104 2d
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $177 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,444.50 · official $1,444.50 (match) · 3500 history records