Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:27:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FA 0xfac4…57c2 sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$455 (+3%) realized +$455 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$790per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$268
7 days+$287
14 days+$287
30 days+$287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$183
sports 25% +$154
world 4% −$84
other 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +12.2% +1.5% 60% 40% -7.1%
≤30d 5 +12.2% +1.5% 60% 40% -7.1%
≤90d 16 -10.1% -18.6% 44% 31% -9.9%
all 16 -10.1% -18.6% 44% 31% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 31% -9.9%
10% -26.4% 31% -18.5%
15% -33.5% 25% -26.4%
20% -40.0% 19% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$127 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$455
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage78d
Avg bet$790
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 25 $1,012 +$226 +22%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $37 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $448 −$21 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 25 $9,060 +$64 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$18 +46%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $260 −$255 -98%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $215 −$212 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $463 −$320 -69%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $522 +$310 +60%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $192 +$264 +137%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $452 +$19 +4%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $121 +$149 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9? May 09 $329 −$210 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 09 $40 −$37 -93%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $102 −$63 -62%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 08 $133 −$28 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra SELL Inner Circle Esports 54¢ $364 10m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $36 12m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra SELL Inner Circle Esports 51¢ $8 12m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $427 12m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $37 17m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $60 25m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $89 25m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $98 25m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 25m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 25m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 28¢ $70 27m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 28¢ $55 27m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 26¢ $0 27m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 28¢ $70 27m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $595 38m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra SELL Sashi Esport 32¢ $77 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra SELL Sashi Esport 32¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra SELL Sashi Esport 32¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra SELL Sashi Esport 44¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra SELL Sashi Esport 44¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 37¢ $94 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 37¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 37¢ $75 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 38¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 38¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 38¢ $83 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 42¢ $107 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 43¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 43¢ $33 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.50 · official $8.50 (match) · 120 history records