Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:02:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfac6…a16e
weather · 175 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$14 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$96
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses83 / 31
Open positions61
Markets (closed)114 / 175
History coverage38d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 61 History 114 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$5
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 14? No 77¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? No 79¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 85¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? No 87¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? No 83¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? No 79¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? No 81¢ 95¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 78¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 85¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 86¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 85¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 83¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 78¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 61¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 87¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? No 79¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? No 80¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? No 87¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? No 76¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 65¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 82¢ 89¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 85¢ 89¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 81¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 86¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 79¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$16
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $2 55m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 76¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 83¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 87¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 46¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 87¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 86¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 84¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 81¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 78¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -4.6% -13.7% 76% 76% -12.4%
≤30d 105 -10.2% -18.8% 71% 70% -16.7%
≤90d 114 -8.4% -17.2% 73% 68% -15.9%
all 114 -8.4% -17.2% 73% 68% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 68% -15.9%
10% -25.1% 31% -23.9%
15% -32.3% 11% -31.3%
20% -39.0% 4% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.37 · official $96.27 (match) · 313 history records