Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:07:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfac7…78eb sports 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,226 (+5%) realized +$9,728 · open −$502
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%48W / 36L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$2,277per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$2,422est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$14,152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9,817
14 days−$1,895
30 days−$11,566
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$8,872
other 2% −$1,777
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -28.5% -35.3% 40% 40% -41.3%
≤30d 16 -14.3% -22.5% 50% 50% -26.5%
≤90d 84 +3.6% -6.2% 57% 57% -5.9%
all 84 +3.6% -6.2% 57% 57% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 57% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 56% -14.9%
15% -23.4% 49% -23.1%
20% -30.9% 42% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$3,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,581 vs −$1,897 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$14,152
Realized+$9,728
Unrealized−$502
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses48 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$2,422
Open positions5
Markets (closed)84 / 89
History coverage74d
Avg bet$2,277
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh Michael Mmoh 62¢ 62¢ $5,224 $5,190 −$33 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic Lukas Neumayer 51¢ 48¢ $4,300 $4,026 −$274 (-6%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Caty McNally 68¢ 65¢ $4,000 $3,824 −$176 (-4%)
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya Anna Kalinskaya 70¢ 68¢ $730 $716 −$14 (-2%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola Liam Draxl 42¢ 42¢ $400 $395 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao Jun 16 $7,035 +$1,358 +19%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $810 +$560 +69%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar Jun 15 $12,102 −$3,735 -31%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 15 $5,564 −$5,500 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,565 −$2,500 -98%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 15 $2,584 −$2,550 -99%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $2,938 +$2,245 +76%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $4,231 +$1,369 +32%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $2,520 +$907 +36%
Ilkley: Kayla Day vs Mary Stoiana Jun 09 $8,429 +$8,862 +105%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 09 $1,937 −$1,910 -99%
Ilkley: Linda Klimovicova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 08 $2,935 −$2,880 -98%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 08 $7,087 −$7,000 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch May 24 $152 +$128 +84%
Roland Garros WTA: Francesca Jones vs Beatriz Haddad Maia May 24 $101 +$80 +79%
Hamburg European Open (Doubles): Schnaitter/Wallner vs Harrison/Skupsk May 21 $152 −$150 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Francisca Jorge May 20 $3,022 +$973 +32%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Storm Hunter vs Xiyu Wang May 20 $5,036 +$1,534 +30%
Internationaux de Strasbourg (Doubles): Muhammad/Stollar vs Alexandrov May 20 $101 +$82 +81%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Federico Cina vs Bernard Tomic May 20 $3,018 +$735 +24%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Sinja Kraus vs Noma Noha Akugue May 20 $394 +$197 +50%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade May 20 $1,006 +$240 +24%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Jessika Ponchet May 20 $506 −$500 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Xinyu Gao vs Harmony Tan May 20 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Rebeka Masarova vs Maria Lourdes Car May 19 $614 +$2,260 +368%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Sloane Stephens vs Lisa Pigato May 19 $203 −$200 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Greet Minnen vs Lola Radivojevic May 19 $2,469 −$2,440 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 17 $3,028 −$3,000 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Anastas May 16 $4,050 +$2,830 +70%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Talia Gibson vs Eva Lys May 16 $2,018 −$2,000 -99%
Paris: Alina Charaeva vs Tamara Korpatsch May 13 $1,382 −$1,360 -98%
Parma: Yue Yuan vs Mayar Sherif May 12 $3,340 +$2,650 +79%
Tunis: Inaki Montes vs Alex Barrena May 12 $709 +$541 +76%
Paris: Talia Gibson vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich May 11 $12,151 +$8,538 +70%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Iva Jovic May 11 $3,022 +$942 +31%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anna Kalinskaya vs Jelena Ostapenko May 11 $811 +$626 +77%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Elise Mertens May 08 $1,058 −$1,041 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marie Bouzkova vs Taylor Townsend May 07 $9,439 +$9,038 +96%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Zizou Bergs vs Terence Atmane May 07 $2,059 +$2,472 +120%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yannick Hanfmann vs Luciano Darderi May 07 $204 −$200 -98%
Istanbul: Storm Hunter vs Guiomar Maristany May 06 $3,037 +$2,049 +68%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Manei May 05 $4,073 −$4,000 -98%
Jiujiang: Lanlana Tararudee vs Han Shi May 05 $1,114 −$1,090 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Jil Teichmann vs Rebeka Ma May 05 $1,427 −$1,400 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Jil T May 04 $1,527 +$2,319 +152%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Darja Semenistaja vs Katie May 04 $3,035 +$1,890 +62%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Mayar She May 04 $2,071 +$1,519 +73%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Ashlyn Krueger vs Nikola B May 04 $2,802 −$2,762 -99%
CD Palestino vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $51 +$30 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 68¢ $4,038 46m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola BUY Liam Draxl 42¢ $407 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Michael Mmoh 62¢ $101 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Michael Mmoh 62¢ $506 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Michael Mmoh 62¢ $4,069 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Michael Mmoh 60¢ $607 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 50¢ $2,030 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 52¢ $609 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 50¢ $203 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 51¢ $1,522 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 69¢ $30 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 69¢ $101 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 70¢ $202 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 70¢ $202 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 70¢ $202 3h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 61¢ $2,529 6d
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 61¢ $3,035 6d
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao BUY Xiyu Wang 83¢ $7,035 6d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar BUY Rafael Jodar 71¢ $2,017 6d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar BUY Rafael Jodar 72¢ $10,084 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $2,565 6d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 56¢ $51 7d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 56¢ $2,533 7d
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 58¢ $810 7d
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli BUY Francesco Maestrelli 36¢ $1,019 7d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 75¢ $201 12d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 75¢ $4,030 12d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 53¢ $507 12d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 51¢ $812 12d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 51¢ $41 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,151.60 · official $14,151.60 (match) · 224 history records