Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfac8…4db3 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$60 (-16%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$93
crypto 24% −$86
world 19% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +21.7% +10.1% 57% 57% -10.3%
≤30d 8 +89.8% +71.7% 62% 62% -8.3%
≤90d 11 +38.0% +24.9% 45% 45% -27.1%
all 11 +38.0% +24.9% 45% 45% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.9% 45% -27.1%
10% +12.9% 45% -34.0%
15% +2.0% 45% -40.4%
20% -8.0% 45% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$35 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage70d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $49 +$56 +114%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $17 +$14 +83%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8 +$9 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $41 +$59 +146%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $1 +$6 +567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 08 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $41 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $49 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $17 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $8 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $10 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $10 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $10 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $36 69d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 4¢ $70 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.58 · official $39.58 (match) · 33 history records