Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:50:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfac8…b454 crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$49 (-11%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$44
other 10% −$6
sports 3% −$4
tech 2% +$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-48.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -27.7% -34.6% 44% 22% -38.5%
≤30d 30 -42.3% -47.8% 40% 20% -18.5%
≤90d 30 -42.3% -47.8% 40% 20% -18.5%
all 44 -42.7% -48.2% 36% 23% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.2% 23% -20.1%
10% -53.1% 14% -27.7%
15% -57.7% 11% -34.7%
20% -61.8% 5% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage224d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 22 $18 −$13 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 22 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 22 $36 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 22 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 22 $52 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 22 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 20 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 20 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 20 $37 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 20 $54 −$28 -52%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? May 20 $12 +$5 +37%
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? Nov 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 10 above $170? Nov 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Wizards vs. Celtics Nov 06 $1 $0 +27%
Thunder vs. Clippers Nov 05 $1 $0 +39%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on November 5? Nov 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Nov 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 4, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Nov 04 $1 −$1 -82%
Nets vs. Pacers Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Hornets vs. Pelicans Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucks vs. Raptors Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 3? Nov 04 $2 +$1 +67%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Nov 03 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 4AM ET Nov 03 $7 −$5 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 11h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 26h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 32h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 32h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 33h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 34h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 34h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $4 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 23d
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 24d
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 24d
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $21 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.55 · official $2.55 (match) · 101 history records