Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:42:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfac9…d0f3 other 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate49%41W / 43L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$4
sports 16% −$1
crypto 6% $0
politics 6% −$5
economics 2% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +53.1% +38.5% 100% 25% -3.5%
≤30d 4 +53.1% +38.5% 100% 25% -3.5%
≤90d 8 +1.6% -8.1% 75% 12% -9.2%
all 84 +0.1% -9.5% 49% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses41 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)84 / 87
History coverage630d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on May 16? Jun 28 $1 +$2 +212%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? Jun 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Sweden come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 16? May 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 16? May 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 15 $66 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 06 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $66 $0 -0%
Will The Alternative win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the Mar 06 $66 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 06 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 06 $67 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Feb 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 11 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 18? Jan 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 18 $12 $0 -1%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will Emily O'Reilly win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Nov 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Nov 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Nov 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 02 $20 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iran on June 30? Jul 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope? Jun 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will no new pope be elected in 2025? Jun 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? Jun 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will Mircea Geoană win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian May 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romani May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Anton Pisaroglu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romani May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nicolae Ciucă win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Paul George lead the NBA in Scoring? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Apr 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Apr 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Apr 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will FDP win the most seats in the next German election? Mar 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Grünen win the most seats in the next German election? Mar 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Feb 14 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Sweden come in last place at Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 44d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 44d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 44d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on May 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 44d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $9 44d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 44d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 44d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $13 44d
Will Sweden come in last place at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 44d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $66 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $66 113d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $66 113d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $66 113d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $66 113d
Will The Alternative win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the SELL No 100¢ $66 113d
Will The Alternative win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the BUY No 100¢ $66 113d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $66 113d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 113d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $67 136d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $67 136d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $67 136d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $65 136d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $65 136d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 136d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $67 161d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 161d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $67 161d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 SELL No 100¢ $3 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.02 · official $60.02 (match) · 282 history records