Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:17:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfacc…4d07 crypto 1443 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$843 (-3%) realized −$843 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate82%1188W / 264L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$529
7 days−$401
14 days−$184
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 217 +0.1% -9.4% 83% 45% -9.9%
≤30d 654 +2.5% -7.3% 86% 43% -6.6%
≤90d 1452 +0.3% -9.2% 82% 43% -10.0%
all 1452 +0.3% -9.2% 82% 43% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 43% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 26% -18.6%
15% -25.9% 17% -26.5%
20% -33.1% 9% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$22 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$843
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1188 / 264
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1452 / 1443
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1452 Trades
no open positions (265 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 11PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$50 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 7AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$49 -200%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 3PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 1AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$46 -203%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 10AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$47 -200%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 9AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$47 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 1PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$48 -200%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 11PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$50 -200%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 7AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$49 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$34 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$14 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$21 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $9 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET Jun 19 $9 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET Jun 19 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$4 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET Jun 19 $9 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$18 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET Jun 19 $19 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $8 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $38 +$13 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$2 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $34 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $33 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $37 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $27 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $40 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $0 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $7 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $9 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $11 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $13 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.03 · official $20.42 · 3500 history records