Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FA 0xfacf…cde0 other 5 markets active 1d ago coverage 58d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$1,016 (-81%) realized −$1,016 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$1,035
world 8% −$17
weather 1% +$30
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +20.9% +9.4% 40% 20% -83.8%
≤30d 5 +20.9% +9.4% 40% 20% -83.8%
≤90d 5 +20.9% +9.4% 40% 20% -83.8%
all 5 +20.9% +9.4% 40% 20% -83.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.4% 20% -83.8%
10% -1.0% 20% -85.4%
15% -10.6% 20% -86.8%
20% -19.4% 20% -88.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$350 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,016
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage58d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,046 −$1,030 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $88 −$5 -5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $105 −$17 -16%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026? Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 23? Jun 16 $13 +$30 +225%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,046 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $83 29h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $88 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $88 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $105 4d
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8 58d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 23? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 58d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 23? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records