Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfad1…f9ce world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$1
other 21% $0
politics 11% +$2
sports 5% $0
finance 4% +$1
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 17 -0.7% -10.1% 35% 0% -9.5%
all 38 +0.2% -9.4% 39% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage272d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $38 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $70 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $36 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $39 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $70 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $38 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $24 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $5 −$1 -12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $35 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $35 $0 -1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Oct 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $5 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 18 $19 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 17 $2 $0 +13%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 17 $6 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 17 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 14 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 13 $8 $0 +4%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $26 $0 +1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $34 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $36 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $36 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $36 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $25 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $10 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $35 35h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $26 40h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $10 40h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 42h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $39 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $35 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $34 7d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $38 7d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $39 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $5 31d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $30 31d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $35 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records