Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfad3…edc9 crypto 920 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,153 (-9%) realized −$3,306 · open +$153
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%423W / 489L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day101.3pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3,668now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$602
7 days−$182
14 days−$2,299
30 days−$1,963
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$644
other 16% −$373
sports 6% −$2,081
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (101 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 219 -7.1% -15.9% 43% 43% -11.6%
≤30d 912 +0.4% -9.1% 46% 46% -15.3%
≤90d 912 +0.4% -9.1% 46% 46% -15.3%
all 912 +0.4% -9.1% 46% 46% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 46% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 46% -23.4%
15% -25.8% 45% -30.8%
20% -33.0% 44% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$32 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$3,668
Realized−$3,306
Unrealized+$153
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses423 / 489
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions11
Markets (closed)912 / 920
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day101.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 912 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $998 $1,224 +$226 (+23%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 62¢ 60¢ $740 $714 −$26 (-4%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 65¢ 60¢ $650 $605 −$45 (-7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $398 $431 +$33 (+8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $170 $185 +$15 (+9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $148 $144 −$4 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $138 $138 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $99 $97 −$2 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET Down 46¢ 56¢ $46 $55 +$9 (+21%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $90 $45 −$45 (-50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET Up 46¢ 44¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET Down 46¢ 52¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 7PM ET Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 5PM ET Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4PM ET Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 2PM ET Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$5 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$54 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$54 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$54 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$32 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET Jun 23 $60 −$20 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET Jun 23 $17 +$19 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET Jun 23 $23 +$27 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET Jun 23 $51 −$1 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET Jun 22 $46 +$54 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$11 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET Jun 22 $46 +$54 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET Jun 22 $46 +$54 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $46 +$54 +117%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET Jun 22 $46 +$54 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$13 +117%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$48 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$8 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET Jun 22 $23 +$27 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET Jun 22 $23 +$27 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12AM ET Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10PM ET Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,009 −$1,009 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET Jun 22 $12 +$14 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$5 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $121 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $12 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $5 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $7 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $8 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $1 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $41 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $18 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $638 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $130 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $423 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,668.48 · official $3,668.06 (match) · 3500 history records