Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfada…347f world 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%38W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$10
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% $0
world 27% +$3
politics 21% +$2
sports 13% −$1
economics 9% −$1
crypto 1% −$7
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 27 +7.2% -3.0% 48% 11% -9.2%
≤90d 80 +2.0% -7.7% 40% 4% -9.4%
all 113 +0.9% -8.7% 34% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 3% -9.6%
10% -17.5% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.4% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses38 / 75
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage331d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $37 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $36 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $4 $0 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $36 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $62 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $27 +$9 +34%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $81 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $27 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $26 +$1 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $108 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +9%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $51 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $2 +$3 +157%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $59 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $24 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $33 −$11 -32%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $1 $0 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $33 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $66 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $27 −$1 -3%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $71 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $34 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $34 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? May 08 $2 −$1 -34%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 05 $156 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 03 $67 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 02 $3 $0 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $67 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $68 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $66 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $128 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $41 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $36 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $18 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $17 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $8 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $36 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $36 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $16 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $20 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $36 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes $4 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $3 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $34 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $36 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $35 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $2 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $33 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $27 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.34 · official $0.00 (match) · 450 history records