Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfadc…4a70 other 53 markets active 3h ago coverage 575d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$107 (-1%) realized −$107 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate19%10W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 78% −$14
politics 17% −$15
other 3% −$35
sports 1% −$44
world 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 6% 0% -13.7%
≤90d 41 -10.0% -18.6% 17% 12% -17.2%
all 52 -8.0% -16.8% 19% 10% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 10% -10.1%
10% -24.7% 10% -18.7%
15% -32.0% 10% -26.5%
20% -38.7% 10% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

575d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses10 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage575d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $4 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $4 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $45 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 12 $34 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Apr 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $43 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 +$5 +86%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $9 +$6 +70%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $6 +$7 +105%
Canadiens vs. Rangers Apr 06 $7 +$5 +72%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 01 $47 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Hornets Mar 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-20? Mar 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Mar 26 $21 +$12 +59%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $40 in February? Mar 05 $4 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 17 $13,519 −$14 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $13 $0 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $27 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $28 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 3h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $4 14h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $4 25h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $19 3d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $4 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $4 7d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 53¢ $10 8d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 18d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.61 · official $18.61 (match) · 234 history records