Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfade…0001 weather 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$135 (-2%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate71%22W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% −$142
other 14% +$3
crypto 5% $0
world 4% +$4
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 20 -4.7% -13.7% 65% 0% -12.6%
all 31 -2.9% -12.1% 71% 0% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -11.7%
10% -20.5% 0% -20.2%
15% -28.2% 0% -27.9%
20% -35.2% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$21 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses22 / 9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)31 / 37
History coverage136d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or below on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 13 Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 22? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 22? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 22? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump post "Stupid" this week on Truth Social? Apr 18 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,050 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $382 +$4 +1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $601 −$1 -0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $710 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $347 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $19 $0 +2%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $411 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $29 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $107 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $28 $0 +2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $233 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Mar 18 $199 +$1 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Mar 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 14 $229 +$1 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $186 −$3 -2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Mar 05 $103 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 05 $105 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1,300 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Mar 05 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 31? Feb 15 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 2 be greater than Feb 01 $82 +$1 +1%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $80 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 13 BUY No 100¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $6 26d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $8 26d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $6 26d
Will Trump post "Stupid" this week on Truth Social? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 58d
Will Trump post "Stupid" this week on Truth Social? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 58d
Will Trump post "Stupid" this week on Truth Social? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 58d
Will Trump post "Stupid" this week on Truth Social? BUY Yes 50¢ $117 59d
Will Trump post "Stupid" this week on Truth Social? BUY Yes 50¢ $7 59d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 28¢ $30 60d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 28¢ $38 60d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 28¢ $38 60d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 60d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 60d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 60d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $72 60d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $314 60d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 72¢ $13 60d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 73¢ $6 61d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 73¢ $7 61d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 61d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.42 · official $51.42 (match) · 414 history records