Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:09:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfae0…12b9 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$105 (+1%) realized +$106 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%44W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$720now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$27
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$35
crypto 34% +$15
tech 8% +$18
politics 6% +$8
world 6% +$24
economics 5% +$7
finance 1% $0
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 28 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 41 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 44 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$599) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$720
Realized+$106
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses44 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)44 / 52
History coverage133d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of th Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 17? Jun 17 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.70 on June 16? Jun 16 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 16? Jun 16 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 14? Jun 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 14? Jun 14 $278 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $396 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 11? Jun 11 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 11? Jun 11 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 11? Jun 11 $170 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $270 +$12 +4%
Will Solana reach $140 June 1-7? Jun 08 $129 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $247 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $144 +$5 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $156 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $199 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $7.50? Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $139 +$7 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $179 +$4 +2%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? Jun 01 $871 +$4 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.75 Week of May 18 May 22 $340 +$5 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 18 above $30? May 22 $102 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.75 Week of May 18 May 22 $333 +$4 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 Week of May 18 May 22 $85 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.10 May 11-17? May 18 $858 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $851 +$5 +1%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $850 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $850 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May May 01 $839 +$8 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $829 +$13 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on April 15? Apr 16 $830 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 April 6-12? Apr 13 $226 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 April 6-12? Apr 13 $596 +$3 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $330 end of March? Apr 08 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Apr 08 $700 +$4 +0%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 25 $599 +$1 +0%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 25 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $792 +$7 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.90 February 2-8? Feb 09 $400 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.10 February 2-8? Feb 09 $400 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 99¢ $168 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $2.00-$3.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 99¢ $77 1h
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $62 3d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $200 5d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.70 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $80 5d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $102 5d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 7d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 99¢ $396 8d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $278 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $281 9d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $96 12d
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $170 12d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $130 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $270 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 99¢ $243 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 99¢ $3 13d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $150 13d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $144 16d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $156 16d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in June? BUY No 97¢ $146 16d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in June? BUY No 98¢ $64 16d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $7.50? BUY No 99¢ $15 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 100¢ $199 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $720.39 · official $720.39 (match) · 108 history records