Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:41:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfae3…5228
crypto · 1485 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$9,839 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,760 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Net worth$1
Realized+$9,760
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1323 / 161
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1484 / 1485
History coverage417d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 1484 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$268
14 days+$97
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Martin Landaluce 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $30 −$5 -17%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $100 +$8 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 +$9 +17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$7 +7%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $111 +$12 +11%
Will Mark McKenzie be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA Jun 13 $13 +$46 +367%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $50 +$15 +29%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $111 +$11 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $101 +$24 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $100 +$16 +16%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $60 +$9 +15%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $30 +$6 +21%
ITF Hurghada: Anastasia Tikhonova vs Sandra Samir Jun 12 $30 +$6 +21%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $100 +$11 +11%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $100 +$8 +8%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? Jun 11 $100 +$65 +65%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $100 +$8 +8%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $100 +$7 +7%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$24 +47%
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 08 $167 +$75 +45%
Will Floriana Natale win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayoral electio Jun 08 $110 +$71 +64%
Will Marcello Comanducci win the 2026 Arezzo mayoral election? Jun 08 $23 +$3 +13%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $41 $0 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $74 +$17 +23%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 07 $111 +$62 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 03 $29 −$29 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $52 −$23 -45%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $112 −$112 -100%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $106 +$6 +6%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $31 +$14 +44%
Will "LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI" win Palme d'Or Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin Jun 02 $73 −$73 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $31 +$10 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 73% −$550
sports 8% −$164
culture 5% +$1,687
other 5% +$8,165
politics 3% +$586
weather 3% −$370
world 2% +$424
tech 0% −$18
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch SELL Martin Landaluce 89¢ $48 7m
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Martin Landaluce 91¢ $50 13m
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu SELL Donna Vekic 65¢ $25 16m
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Donna Vekic 77¢ $30 44m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 61¢ $10 1h
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef BUY Ashlyn Krueger 68¢ $30 3h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 93¢ $100 12h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $100 12h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $50 12h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 12h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $50 16h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 92¢ $100 16h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $106 16h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $106 16h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $50 21h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 22h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $100 22h
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef BUY Mary Stoiana 64¢ $30 22h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 93¢ $100 36h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $50 37h
Will Mark McKenzie be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA BUY No 14¢ $3 39h
Will Mark McKenzie be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA BUY No 13¢ $3 39h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 90¢ $111 39h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 41h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $100 42h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $100 42h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $111 44h
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu SELL Emma Raducanu 100¢ $39 46h
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu SELL Emma Raducanu 79¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +13.8% +3.0% 82% 53% -0.7%
≤30d 146 -1.7% -11.1% 83% 26% -10.7%
≤90d 251 -0.9% -10.4% 86% 21% -10.8%
all 1484 +0.9% -8.7% 89% 12% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 12% -0.1%
10% -17.5% 6% -9.7%
15% -25.5% 3% -18.4%
20% -32.8% 2% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.55 · official $0.00 (match) · 3401 history records