Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:10:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfae4…4bf5 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$158 (+1%) realized +$158 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate100%17W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$606per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$151
crypto 18% +$4
other 12% +$1
tech 9% +$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 17 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 6% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 6% -8.3%
10% -17.1% 0% -17.0%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.1%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$952) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized+$158
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses17 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage177d
Avg bet$606
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $124 $124 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 01 $98 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $126 $0 +0%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.50–3.75 in April? May 13 $224 $0 +0%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $215 +$9 +4%
Heat vs. Wizards Apr 11 $215 $0 +0%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 03 $211 +$4 +2%
Will China join the Board of Peace? Apr 01 $1,090 +$1 +0%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 17 $1,089 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on March 14? Mar 14 $1,088 +$1 +0%
Pelicans vs. Kings Mar 06 $1,061 +$26 +2%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Mar 06 $828 +$1 +0%
Kings vs. Mavericks Feb 27 $293 +$3 +1%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 3 Winner Feb 19 $947 +$105 +11%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 2 above $20? Feb 07 $952 +$1 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of January 19 above $400? Jan 24 $951 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of January 5 above $70? Jan 10 $950 +$1 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $947 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $124 1h
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 100¢ $126 29d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $98 29d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.50–3.75 in April? BUY No 100¢ $224 47d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY 76ers 96¢ $215 65d
Heat vs. Wizards BUY Heat 100¢ $215 76d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 98¢ $211 84d
Will China join the Board of Peace? BUY No 100¢ $1,090 91d
Magic vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 100¢ $1,089 101d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $1,088 106d
Lakers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 100¢ $828 112d
Pelicans vs. Kings SELL Pelicans 98¢ $1,072 112d
Pelicans vs. Kings BUY Pelicans 96¢ $1,061 112d
Kings vs. Mavericks BUY Kings 99¢ $293 119d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 3 Winner BUY Invictus Gaming 90¢ $774 134d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 3 Winner BUY Invictus Gaming 90¢ $9 134d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 3 Winner BUY Invictus Gaming 90¢ $1 134d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 3 Winner BUY Invictus Gaming 90¢ $1 134d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 3 Winner BUY Invictus Gaming 90¢ $162 134d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 2 above $20? BUY Yes 100¢ $952 144d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of January 19 above $400? BUY Yes 100¢ $951 154d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of January 5 above $70? BUY Yes 100¢ $950 167d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $947 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.74 · official $223.74 (match) · 42 history records