Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:13:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FA 0xfae6…3fe9 crypto 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$680 (-8%) realized −$670 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%26W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$490now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$407
7 days−$658
14 days−$632
30 days−$632
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$649
sports 27% +$384
crypto 15% −$399
world 4% −$61
weather 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +36.8% +23.8% 54% 54% -21.9%
≤30d 33 +24.4% +12.6% 45% 45% -18.2%
≤90d 61 +11.4% +0.8% 43% 43% -18.5%
all 61 +11.4% +0.8% 43% 43% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 43% -18.5%
10% -8.8% 43% -26.3%
15% -17.7% 43% -33.4%
20% -25.7% 36% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$85 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$490
Realized−$670
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses26 / 35
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions5
Markets (closed)61 / 69
History coverage47d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Over 56¢ 55¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Over 43¢ 41¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $61 +$64 +105%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 +$44 +44%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $149 +$114 +76%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$49 +238%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 +$147 +73%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$40 +186%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$252 +50%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $232 +$132 +57%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$66 +325%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $39 −$38 -99%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $253 −$250 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $405 −$400 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $127 +$118 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $126 −$4 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$49 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $355 +$281 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $26 +$60 +235%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,298 −$1,280 -99%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 12 $10 −$1 -11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $266 −$25 -9%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$14 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $275 −$23 -8%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$7 -7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $996 +$416 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $101 −$3 -3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $101 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $117 −$117 -100%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $367 −$260 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 03 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 03 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 03 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 03 $26 +$26 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 03 $29 +$51 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 03 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 03 $26 +$42 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 03 $26 +$33 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 03 $42 +$50 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 03 $52 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 03 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 03 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 03 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 03 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 03 $11 +$24 +228%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $203 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $61 23h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $20 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $149 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $99 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists AND Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists AND Harry Kane: BUY 8¢ $8 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 34¢ $21 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $232 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $39 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 4d
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $152 4d
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $101 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $405 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 70¢ $122 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY 26¢ $20 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $636 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $86 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $490.20 · official $490.22 (match) · 130 history records