Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:04:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfae9…26cc
crypto · 37 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$47 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$53 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$24
Realized+$53
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses23 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day67.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$53
14 days+$53
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 50¢ 60¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$7 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$6 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$7 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$7 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$8 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$7 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$8 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$7 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$16 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$49 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$19 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$31 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$5 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$5 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$5 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +22.0% +10.4% 66% 66% -0.7%
≤30d 35 +22.0% +10.4% 66% 66% -0.7%
≤90d 35 +22.0% +10.4% 66% 66% -0.7%
all 35 +22.0% +10.4% 66% 66% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover67.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.4% 66% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here -0.1% 66% -10.2%
15% -9.8% 66% -18.9%
20% -18.6% 63% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.90 · official $25.50 · 71 history records