Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FA 0xfae9…768d other 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$7
politics 20% −$5
sports 7% −$45
economics 5% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -16.5%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.6% 11% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 109 -3.2% -12.5% 9% 6% -9.7%
all 109 -3.2% -12.5% 9% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 6% -9.7%
10% -20.8% 6% -18.4%
15% -28.5% 6% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×5.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage89d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $164 $164 +$1 (+0%)
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $287 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $290 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $500 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $109 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $32 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 24 $277 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $256 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $222 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 16 $243 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $230 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $238 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 09 $245 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $673 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $228 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $235 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $247 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $233 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $501 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 01 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $238 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $228 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $249 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $251 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $488 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $238 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $245 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $468 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $234 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $484 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $234 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $255 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $233 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $470 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 22h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 26h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $12 27h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 45h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 47h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 3d
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 99¢ $164 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 8d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $51 9d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 10d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $46 13d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 15d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 17d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 18d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 18d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 20d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 20d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 23d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $39 25d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $39 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.24 · official $207.24 (match) · 318 history records