Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:37:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfaea…faee weather 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%15W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 35% $0
crypto 35% $0
other 14% $0
economics 11% $0
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 15 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses15 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage184d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 16? Jun 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on April 8? Apr 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? Apr 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 17? Mar 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady attend Super Bowl LX? Feb 18 $7 $0 +3%
Will Chloé Zhao - Hamnet win Best Director of a Theatrical Feature Fil Feb 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 18 $11 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 18 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $104 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $58 16d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $45 71d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $26 75d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $27 84d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 90d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 103d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $32 105d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? BUY No 99¢ $5 112d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 116d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 122d
Will Chloé Zhao - Hamnet win Best Director of a Theatrical Feature Fil BUY No 100¢ $8 142d
Will Tom Brady attend Super Bowl LX? BUY Yes 97¢ $7 143d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 152d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $15 160d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $13 160d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $13 160d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $13 160d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $104 182d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $1 184d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.06 · official $86.06 (match) · 34 history records