Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfaee…ea35 crypto 832 markets active 15h ago coverage 156d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 155d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-1%) realized −$68 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate40%330W / 499L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$7
14 days−$1
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$51
world 6% −$59
finance 3% $0
sports 1% +$5
other 1% −$4
politics 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -40.8% -46.4% 34% 31% -14.7%
≤30d 143 -34.2% -40.4% 46% 40% -11.7%
≤90d 420 -47.4% -52.4% 35% 27% -20.6%
all 829 -20.0% -27.6% 40% 23% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 23% -11.0%
10% -34.6% 14% -19.5%
15% -40.9% 6% -27.3%
20% -46.7% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$68
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses330 / 499
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)829 / 832
History coverage156d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 829 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 84¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+69%)
GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-69%)
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Yes 53¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Anthropic CEO arrested? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 09 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 08 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.38 · official $41.38 (match) · 3500 history records