Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfaef…874c other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$119 (-23%) realized −$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 236d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$84
sports 25% −$68
crypto 15% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-74.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -59.8% -63.6% 0% 0% -45.1%
≤30d 5 -59.8% -63.6% 0% 0% -45.1%
≤90d 5 -59.8% -63.6% 0% 0% -45.1%
all 7 -71.3% -74.0% 0% 0% -48.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.0% 0% -48.0%
10% -76.5% 0% -52.9%
15% -78.8% 0% -57.5%
20% -80.9% 0% -61.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -71% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$32 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage236d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $108 −$51 -47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $163 −$16 -10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $73 −$36 -49%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$17 -84%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $71 −$28 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104,000 on November 2? Nov 02 $77 −$72 -93%
Will Pope Leo visit another country first? Nov 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 44¢ $15 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $37 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $37 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $54 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $17 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $18 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 49¢ $36 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $40 2h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $56 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $96 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $106 6h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 8h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $42 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104,000 on November 2? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 235d
Will Pope Leo visit another country first? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 235d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104,000 on November 2? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 235d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104,000 on November 2? BUY Yes 1¢ $77 235d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records