Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfaf4…4464 crypto 599 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (228 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$386 (+1%) realized +$386 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate52%336W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day227.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$171
7 days−$210
14 days−$251
30 days−$251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (228 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 353 -12.6% -20.9% 49% 2% -10.7%
≤30d 645 -3.4% -12.6% 52% 3% -10.3%
≤90d 645 -3.4% -12.6% 52% 3% -10.3%
all 645 -3.4% -12.6% 52% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover227.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 3% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 1% -18.8%
15% -28.6% 1% -26.7%
20% -35.6% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$386
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses336 / 309
Open positions0
Markets (closed)645 / 599
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day227.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 645 Trades
no open positions (77 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $48 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $17 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $42 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $42 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records