Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:38:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfaf6…cc47 sports 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6,044 (+2%) realized +$4,281 · open +$1,763
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate96%23W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$9,722per market
Trades / day81.3pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$170,951now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% +$2,365
world 23% +$1,630
other 13% +$830
sports 7% +$538
finance 3% +$558
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +6.6% -3.5% 96% 25% -7.7%
≤30d 24 +6.6% -3.5% 96% 25% -7.7%
≤90d 24 +6.6% -3.5% 96% 25% -7.7%
all 24 +6.6% -3.5% 96% 25% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 25% -7.7%
10% -12.7% 8% -16.5%
15% ← realistic here -21.2% 0% -24.6%
20% -28.9% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,955) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$80 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×52.99 per $1 lost it wins $52.99
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$170,951
Realized+$4,281
Unrealized+$1,763
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses23 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions17
Markets (closed)24 / 41
History coverage6d
Avg bet$9,722
Trades / day81.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 95¢ 93¢ $53,865 $53,067 −$798 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $25,008 $24,329 −$679 (-3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $17,844 $18,340 +$496 (+3%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $15,262 $15,532 +$270 (+2%)
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $14,795 $15,356 +$561 (+4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $14,523 $14,809 +$286 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 91¢ 96¢ $6,891 $7,298 +$408 (+6%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $6,133 $6,631 +$498 (+8%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 83¢ 90¢ $5,653 $6,074 +$421 (+7%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $4,472 $4,570 +$99 (+2%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,746 $1,812 +$66 (+4%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 87¢ 92¢ $1,175 $1,250 +$74 (+6%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $1,148 $1,189 +$41 (+4%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $311 $329 +$18 (+6%)
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $169 $171 +$2 (+1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $159 $159 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 22 $145 +$8 +5%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $275 +$78 +28%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $590 +$10 +2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $925 +$75 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $862 +$138 +16%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $278 +$45 +16%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $930 −$80 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $30,865 +$688 +2%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $268 +$85 +32%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $971 +$29 +3%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $189 +$6 +3%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $13,279 +$121 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $2,943 +$18 +1%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $1,955 +$350 +18%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $660 +$81 +12%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 19 $126,137 +$2,169 +2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $1,285 +$64 +5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $209 +$2 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,025 +$51 +5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $1,325 +$26 +2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $1,325 +$26 +2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $1,312 +$39 +3%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $995 +$5 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $17,838 +$126 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $59 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $109 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY No 95¢ $115 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $7 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $66 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $3 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $332 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $11 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $456 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 100¢ $24 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $110 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $123 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1,139 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 100¢ $208 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $519 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $2 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $7 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $52 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $2 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $2 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $3,319 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $11 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 89¢ $1,608 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170,951.11 · official $170,951.12 (match) · 487 history records