Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:26:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FA 0xfaf7…e814 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$81 (+22%) realized +$88 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate77%17W / 5L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$43
14 days+$86
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$14
sports 33% +$59
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)+34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +28.6% +16.4% 78% 78% +20.0%
≤30d 22 +48.3% +34.2% 77% 77% +16.8%
≤90d 22 +48.3% +34.2% 77% 77% +16.8%
all 22 +48.3% +34.2% 77% 77% +16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.2% 77% +16.8%
10% +21.3% 73% +5.7%
15% +9.6% 73% -4.6%
20% -1.1% 68% -13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +77% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$88
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses17 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)22 / 27
History coverage25d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-22%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $15 +$10 +67%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$7 +73%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $15 +$12 +79%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$8 +50%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$17 +57%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 22 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$10 +97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 +$13 +129%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$12 +114%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$8 +414%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $10 +$6 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 29h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $20 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 3d
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 5d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $15 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 6d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 64¢ $10 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 8d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $10 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 11d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 12d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $5 13d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 13d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 13d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 14d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 14d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 15d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 97¢ $18 15d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 15d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 17d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 17d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 81¢ $12 17d
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3.5 100¢ $16 24d
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 61¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.96 · official $77.96 (match) · 47 history records