Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:11:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfaf9…0c66 crypto 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$95 (+2%) realized +$92 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate77%27W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$49
tech 16% +$6
other 15% +$5
sports 9% +$124
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.4% -6.5% 50% 17% -10.3%
≤30d 9 +2.7% -7.1% 56% 22% -8.9%
≤90d 13 +1.9% -7.8% 69% 15% -9.1%
all 35 +10.0% -0.5% 77% 23% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 23% -7.7%
10% -10.0% 17% -16.5%
15% -18.7% 17% -24.6%
20% -26.7% 11% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$69 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$92
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses27 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage232d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $109 $113 +$4 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $84 −$14 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $224 −$29 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $202 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $75 +$35 +46%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 19 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 28 $98 +$102 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 28 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 25 $339 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 03 $339 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 21 $339 $0 +0%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 2 Mar 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20? Mar 29 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 20? Mar 20 $113 $0 +0%
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Mar 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M Mar 18 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 18 $92 +$19 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 18 $129 +$57 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 18 $50 +$150 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 18 $65 −$65 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 18 $66 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 18 $71 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 18 $71 +$127 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 23? Mar 05 $324 −$324 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Mar 05 $30 $0 +2%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Fe Mar 05 $41 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on January 12? Feb 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 17 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026? Jan 12 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jan 10 $41 +$2 +4%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 25 $28 +$3 +9%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 21 $204 +$120 +59%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 08 $198 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $9 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $52 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $55 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $9 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $68 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $110 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.25 · official $208.25 (match) · 231 history records