Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:12:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfaf9…296d crypto 762 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$96 (-1%) realized −$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%740W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$18
14 days−$11
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$117
finance 6% +$21
other 6% −$40
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -0.7% -10.1% 97% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 440 -0.7% -10.2% 97% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 763 -1.0% -10.5% 97% 0% -10.3%
all 763 -1.0% -10.5% 97% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$20 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses740 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)763 / 762
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 763 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? Down 99¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 2PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $18 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $18 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $17 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $12 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $12 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $8 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET Jun 26 $49 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $12 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $12 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $18 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 24 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 24 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 24 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $49 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET Jun 23 $28 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $17 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $17 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 99¢ $28 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $12 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $18 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $18 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $12 17h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $8 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 38h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 42h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $12 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 44h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $12 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.60 · official $27.99 · 3500 history records