Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

FA 0xfafa…e6ba sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$21 (+2%) realized +$51 · open −$30

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate58%11W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$57per market

Trades / day1.0pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$168

7 days−$48

14 days−$48

30 days+$6

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)+0.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+5.3%	-4.8%	53%	53%	-13.8%
≤30d	19	+11.4%	+0.8%	58%	58%	-9.1%
≤90d	19	+11.4%	+0.8%	58%	58%	-9.1%
all	19	+11.4%	+0.8%	58%	58%	-9.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+0.8%	58%	-9.1%
10%	-8.8%	58%	-17.8%
15%	-17.6%	58%	-25.7%
20%	-25.7%	53%	-33.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 13% · top 2 25% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +44% → late -18% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$44 vs −$59 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.01 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage

Net worth$17

Realized+$51

Unrealized−$30

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses11 / 8

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage26d

Avg bet$57

Trades / day1.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Over	51¢	18¢	$47	$17	−$30 (-64%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$74	+$59	+79%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$54	+$57	+105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$122	−$66	-54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$61	+$62	+101%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$64	+$57	+90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$54	−$54	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 16	$64	−$64	-100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$54	−$54	-100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$52	−$52	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 16	$73	−$73	-100%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-30?	Jun 16	$54	−$54	-100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$57	−$57	-99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5	Jun 15	$60	+$48	+81%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$51	+$33	+64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$53	+$58	+109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$23	+$40	+172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$30	+$13	+41%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$31	+$22	+70%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23?	May 24	$54	+$31	+57%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$47	1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$74	18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$54	24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	26¢	$51	25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	28¢	$5	25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$122	27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$61	44h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	52¢	$64	2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	52¢	$57	2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$52	2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$54	3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	54¢	$54	3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	99¢	$108	3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	54¢	$60	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$73	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$83	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	60¢	$51	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$64	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$53	5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$43	6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$30	8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	36¢	$23	8d
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	21¢	$54	18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	58¢	$31	19d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23?	BUY Yes	63¢	$54	26d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.98 · official $16.98 (match) · 39 history records