Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:06:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FA 0xfafc…c7a2 crypto 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$90 (-3%) realized −$67 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%70W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$75
14 days−$215
30 days−$299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$140
sports 27% −$77
other 24% −$279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +11.1% +0.5% 60% 40% -43.1%
≤30d 32 -26.7% -33.7% 25% 22% -34.5%
≤90d 145 -11.7% -20.1% 48% 44% -15.3%
all 145 -11.7% -20.1% 48% 44% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 44% -15.3%
10% -27.7% 41% -23.4%
15% -34.7% 33% -30.8%
20% -41.1% 26% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$16 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$67
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses70 / 75
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage68d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 40¢ 24¢ $55 $32 −$23 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Jun 21 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $9 +$4 +41%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $19 +$40 +206%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $25 −$8 -33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $21 +$42 +194%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $107 −$46 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$88 +88%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $44 −$8 -17%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $146 −$43 -29%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $14 −$14 -98%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $31 −$16 -53%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $49 −$17 -34%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 09 $35 −$34 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $14 +$22 +152%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $31 −$30 -97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $37 +$57 +155%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $62 −$38 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 06 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 06 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $15 +$67 +437%
BNB Up or Down - May 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 21 $36 −$35 -97%
BNB Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 21 $35 −$34 -97%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 21 $10 +$10 +93%
BNB Up or Down - May 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 21 $55 +$10 +17%
BNB Up or Down - May 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 20 $41 +$9 +22%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $15 +$27 +175%
BNB Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 19 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 19 $72 +$17 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 19 $41 +$30 +73%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $39 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 16 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 16 $26 +$19 +75%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 15 $31 +$32 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 15 $8 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 15 $21 +$5 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 40¢ $56 1h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $103 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 61¢ $13 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $9 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $19 47h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 44¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $10 7d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 7d
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 7d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 7d
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 11¢ $11 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $63 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $21 9d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $46 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $187 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $100 9d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $37 9d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $63 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $14 10d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $15 10d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 10d
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 10d
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 11d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $28 11d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $37 11d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 28¢ $18 12d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 12d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $44 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.06 · official $32.06 (match) · 283 history records