Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:56:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfafc…6886 sports 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$780
14 days−$64
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$953
sports 48% +$974
world 3% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -15.6% -23.7% 41% 35% -12.9%
≤30d 36 -6.4% -15.3% 44% 39% -3.3%
≤90d 36 -6.4% -15.3% 44% 39% -3.3%
all 36 -6.4% -15.3% 44% 39% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 39% -3.3%
10% -23.4% 33% -12.5%
15% -30.8% 31% -21.0%
20% -37.6% 25% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$101 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage13d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $20 +$7 +35%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$32 +64%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $183 +$23 +13%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $272 −$179 -66%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$57 +112%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$60 +60%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$50 +50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $76 +$54 +71%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $87 −$85 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $110 +$57 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $233 −$105 -45%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $168 −$18 -11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$97 +473%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$50 -49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$58 -28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $147 −$2 -2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $706 −$400 -57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $780 +$14 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $254 −$250 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $902 +$81 +9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $253 +$196 +78%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $682 +$74 +11%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $72 −$70 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $953 +$437 +46%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $62 −$60 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $687 −$505 -74%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $445 +$507 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $111 +$209 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 73¢ $27 3m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 4m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 8m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 14m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $83 15m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 32m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 36m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? SELL Yes 17¢ $76 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 14¢ $66 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $36 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $117 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $90 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $90 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $94 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 25¢ $46 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $48 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $272 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $151 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $31 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $130 31h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $46 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 44¢ $46 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 31h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 32h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 86 history records