Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:44:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FA 0xfafd…c5ab other 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate14%15W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$1
politics 19% −$5
economics 6% −$2
tech 5% +$243
sports 1% +$18
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.4% -39.8% 0% 0% -12.7%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.6% 11% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 108 +2.9% -6.9% 14% 10% -8.6%
all 108 +2.9% -6.9% 14% 10% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 10% -8.6%
10% -15.8% 10% -17.3%
15% -23.9% 10% -25.3%
20% -31.4% 8% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$1 · ×26.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.27 per $1 lost it wins $4.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses15 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage86d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $128 $128 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $108 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $68 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $110 $0 +0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $290 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $225 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $252 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $246 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $226 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $474 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $238 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 10 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 09 $254 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,535 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $451 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $494 +$244 +49%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $257 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $256 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $948 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $253 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $418 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 29 $236 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $521 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $243 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $248 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $260 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $245 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $257 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $253 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $243 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $241 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $423 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $255 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $490 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 27m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $128 3h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 3h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $5 32h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 5d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 5d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 5d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 7d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $48 10d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $48 11d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 13d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 14d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 14d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 15d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 16d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 18d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 18d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $68 21d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 23d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 23d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $48 23d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $48 24d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.78 · official $127.78 (match) · 313 history records