Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:49:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfafe…066f weather 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$102 (-2%) realized −$102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate82%116W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$52
14 days+$49
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% −$178
crypto 4% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +8.1% -2.2% 89% 33% -7.2%
≤30d 141 +2.3% -7.4% 82% 31% -11.2%
≤90d 141 +2.3% -7.4% 82% 31% -11.2%
all 141 +2.3% -7.4% 82% 31% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 31% -11.2%
10% -16.3% 13% -19.7%
15% -24.4% 7% -27.4%
20% -31.8% 4% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$19 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses116 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage26d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $144 −$26 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 15 $72 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $121 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $116 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12? Jun 13 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 12 $106 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $27 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $91 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $141 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $91 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $96 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $60 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $90 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 8? Jun 09 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 8? Jun 09 $111 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $31 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 79¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 79¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 79¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 79¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $40 5h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $73 7h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $41 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $41 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $63 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $27 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $13 21h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June BUY No 98¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June BUY No 98¢ $40 24h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $60 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $29 24h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June BUY No 98¢ $22 24h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 96¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $6 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $28 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $50 31h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $12 31h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $70 31h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $39 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 408 history records