Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:05:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FB 0xfb02…0aac crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%25W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +1.3% -8.4% 62% 58% -0.8%
≤30d 40 +1.3% -8.4% 62% 58% -0.8%
≤90d 40 +1.3% -8.4% 62% 58% -0.8%
all 40 +1.3% -8.4% 62% 58% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 58% -0.8%
10% -17.1% 45% -10.3%
15% -25.1% 42% -18.9%
20% -32.5% 32% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$22 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses25 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage6d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $28 +$22 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$22 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $29 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $74 +$55 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $39 +$39 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $29 +$22 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$21 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $14 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $13 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $7 +$5 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $17 −$9 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $190 −$163 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $91 +$72 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $60 +$36 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $33 −$8 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $23 +$30 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$7 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $50 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $28 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $58 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $36 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $128 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $74 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $79 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $29 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $22 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $21 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records