Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FB 0xfb02…f541 crypto 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+4%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%28W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -18.3% -26.0% 41% 23% -5.3%
≤30d 22 -18.3% -26.0% 41% 23% -5.3%
≤90d 22 -18.3% -26.0% 41% 23% -5.3%
all 68 -10.3% -18.9% 41% 34% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 34% -7.9%
10% -26.6% 32% -16.7%
15% -33.7% 28% -24.8%
20% -40.2% 26% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses28 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage200d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET Jun 29 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET Jun 29 $16 +$14 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET Jun 29 $22 +$18 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$18 +335%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$28 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 4PM ET Jan 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 12AM ET Jan 20 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jan 20 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 20 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 19 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 19 $12 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 9AM ET Jan 19 $20 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 19 $14 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 8AM ET Jan 19 $20 +$30 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 19 $2 +$3 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 19 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 7AM ET Jan 19 $20 +$14 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jan 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 6AM ET Jan 19 $20 +$24 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jan 19 $6 +$10 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jan 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jan 19 $22 +$26 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12AM ET Jan 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11PM ET Jan 19 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jan 19 $19 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1PM ET Jan 19 $2 +$3 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 12PM ET Jan 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 18 $22 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 18 $24 +$6 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $36 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $19 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $16 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $6 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $39 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $12 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records