Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:03:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb05…2924 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%15W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$8
other 32% +$1
crypto 7% $0
politics 5% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 17 -3.1% -12.3% 29% 0% -10.9%
all 41 -1.1% -10.5% 37% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -10.2%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses15 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage369d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $55 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $55 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $27 $0 -1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $19 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $28 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $29 −$1 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $16 −$5 -33%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $76 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $2 $0 -11%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? Aug 10 $23 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jul 06 $28 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 05 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 01 $23 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $22 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 23 $22 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jun 22 $23 $0 -2%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 21 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $27 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $16 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 23h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $21 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $27 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $19 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $8 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $18 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $27 40h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $20 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $20 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $19 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $27 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $28 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $28 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $28 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $17 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $11 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $28 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.68 · official $26.68 (match) · 113 history records