Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:26:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb08…e1e7 other 44 markets active 3h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$587 (-84%) realized −$587 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 94% −$602
other 4% −$7
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -33.3% -39.7% 0% 0% -39.7%
≤30d 1 -33.3% -39.7% 0% 0% -39.7%
≤90d 44 -33.4% -39.7% 0% 0% -89.1%
all 44 -33.4% -39.7% 0% 0% -89.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 0% -89.1%
10% -45.5% 0% -90.1%
15% -50.8% 0% -91.1%
20% -55.6% 0% -92.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -88% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$14 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$587
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage81d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 23 $77 −$26 -33%
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $570 −$570 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Apr 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will the US lose between 100k and 150k jobs in March? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US lose more than 150k jobs in March? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -33%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce Matt Gaetz as the next United States Attorn Apr 03 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Donald Trump announce Ron DeSantis as the next United States Atto Apr 03 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -50%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -50%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -50%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Apr 03 $1 $0 -38%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -33%
Will Donald Trump announce Jay Clayton as the next United States Attor Apr 03 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -29%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -33%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -33%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -25%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -25%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -25%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -25%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -25%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -17%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -17%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -17%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -9%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -8%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -8%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -4%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? Apr 03 $6 −$5 -86%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce Mike Lee as the next United States Attorney Apr 03 $1 $0 -13%
Will Donald Trump announce Jeff Clark as the next United States Attorn Apr 03 $1 −$1 -52%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 03 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $51 3h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $69 3h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 3h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 3h
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $38 80d
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $111 80d
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 80d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 80d
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $55 80d
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $50 80d
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $22 80d
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $76 81d
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $11 81d
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $105 81d
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $14 81d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 81d
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $20 81d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 81d
Will Donald Trump announce Matt Gaetz as the next United States Attorn SELL Yes 0¢ $0 81d
Will Donald Trump announce Ron DeSantis as the next United States Atto SELL Yes 0¢ $0 81d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 81d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 81d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 81d
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b SELL Yes 2¢ $1 81d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 81d
Will Donald Trump announce Jay Clayton as the next United States Attor SELL Yes 0¢ $0 81d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 81d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 81d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 81d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records