Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:30:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FB 0xfb0c…980a sports 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 350d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-1%) realized −$12 · open −$33
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%47W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$22
14 days−$186
30 days−$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$84
other 17% −$206
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 50% -28.3%
≤30d 59 -13.8% -22.0% 47% 42% -19.4%
≤90d 93 -9.4% -18.0% 49% 46% -9.4%
all 101 -13.6% -21.8% 47% 44% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 44% -11.2%
10% -29.3% 43% -19.7%
15% -36.1% 38% -27.5%
20% -42.4% 30% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$34 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

350d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses47 / 54
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 104
History coverage350d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5) Natus Vincere 50¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -97%
Game Handicap: GLYPH (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) Jun 22 $33 −$32 -98%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $12 +$21 +172%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 +$3 +32%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $29 −$20 -68%
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5) Jun 21 $16 +$13 +86%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $14 +$6 +42%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $77 −$76 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $31 +$46 +152%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $64 −$33 -52%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $44 +$19 +43%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $24 +$21 +86%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $27 +$61 +226%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 18 $136 −$136 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $39 +$25 +64%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $75 +$41 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$25 +50%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$55 -87%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$14 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $51 +$4 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$26 +102%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $22 −$21 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $62 +$60 +97%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $102 +$34 +33%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $70 +$32 +46%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 07 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $28 −$27 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $21 −$21 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $7 +$14 +185%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $31 +$31 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $15 +$15 +98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $9 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $58 −$56 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality Academy vs Prestige (BO3) - United21 Group B May 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) May 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha May 29 $109 −$109 -100%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming (BO5) - European Pro League Playoff May 29 $80 −$80 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $34 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 37h
Game Handicap: GLYPH (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) BUY GLYPH 36¢ $33 5d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 36¢ $12 5d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 5d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $9 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $29 5d
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5) BUY Nigma Galaxy 53¢ $16 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 52¢ $20 7d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL REKONIX 100¢ $20 7d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 69¢ $14 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 51¢ $77 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $77 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 39¢ $31 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 17¢ $30 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $64 7d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $64 7d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $44 8d
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner SELL Execration 100¢ $44 8d
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 53¢ $24 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 19¢ $2 8d
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $88 8d
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 30¢ $27 8d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 41¢ $20 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $64 10d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ $39 10d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $39 10d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 65¢ $25 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $75 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 194 history records