Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb12…2a89 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$93 (-26%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$18
crypto 23% −$84
sports 11% +$99
weather 9% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -28.3% -35.2% 19% 12% -21.2%
≤30d 16 -28.3% -35.2% 19% 12% -21.2%
≤90d 16 -28.3% -35.2% 19% 12% -21.2%
all 16 -28.3% -35.2% 19% 12% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 12% -21.2%
10% -41.4% 12% -28.7%
15% -47.0% 12% -35.6%
20% -52.2% 12% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$15 · ×3.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage7d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $36 +$67 +188%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$100 +650%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $76 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $5 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 34¢ $36 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $7 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.06 · official $100.06 (match) · 35 history records